The era of a ‘frozen’ political cycle in Ukraine is drawing to a close. Despite ongoing debates about the advisability of holding elections during wartime, several of my sources in Kyiv from within the Ukrainian president’s inner circle have confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has decided to stand for a second term. And insiders from the Pechersk Hills say the most likely window for the vote is this coming autumn.
However, whilst opinion polls and approval ratings were previously the main focus of internal discussions, the trigger now has been a clear signal from Western allies. Both Brussels and Washington are increasingly insisting on the need to ‘restart the legitimacy’ of state institutions and to integrate the military and veteran elite more fully into the country’s governance structure. It is no coincidence that, against this backdrop, the Financial Times suggested as early as February that the presidential election might be held alongside a referendum on a peace agreement with Russia.
But realising that going it alone, against a backdrop of public fatigue, does not guarantee another triumph for Zelenskyy, Bankova is banking on the country’s main political asset — an alliance with Valery Zaluzhny, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and nowUkraine’s ambassador to our country.
“The first details of the future alliance were discussed back in London, during Defence Minister Rustem Umerov’s visit,” says a source within the leadership of the pro-presidential Ukrainian parliamentary faction ‘Servant of the People’. “It was precisely for this reason that Zaluzhny later travelled to Kyiv, where, in closed-door meetings, he personally negotiated the terms of potential cooperation.”
This information is also confirmed by a number of sources in diplomatic circles in London, who suggest that two formats of cooperation involving Ambassador Zaluzhny are currently under discussion. Either a single mega-bloc combining the charisma of both leaders, or two parallel projects targeting different audiences but coordinated from a single centre.
The overall plan is simple – Zaluzhny is setting aside his own presidential ambitions in favour of Zelenskyy’s second term. In return, this guarantees the ‘iron general’ a free hand, as well as the financial and media resources to build a powerful faction of his own in Ukraine’s future parliament.
The legislative sieve: A pact with the devil?
The main challenge is a legal one. Ukrainian law restricts the holding of free elections whilst martial law is in force. However, according to a number of Ukrainian MPs, a whole team of lawyers and political advisers is already working on resolving this dilemma.
“This is more a matter of technical work than political debate: a group comprising lawyers, technical experts and MPs close to the president has met three times over the past two months to draft amendments to the electoral legislation and the Constitution. The key aim is to make it possible to hold elections even under martial law,” says a source in Kyiv with close ties to the process.
However, he acknowledges that even if a legal framework is devised, its implementation would require a constitutional majority, which the ‘single-party majority’ has long since lost.
Potentially, to resolve this problem, ‘Servants of the People’ may resort to the tactic of securing votes by drawing on the remnants of the former Opposition Platform – For Life. All the more so as this practice has long been an established one . According to the Ukrainian movement CHESNO, it was MPs from the ‘Trust’ group, as well as MPs from the former pro-Russian OPZZh bloc, who voted most consistently alongside the presidential party over the past year.
“They’re prepared to vote for the Latinisation of the alphabet, if the immunity of their assets and the dismissal of criminal cases are at stake,” one MP notes ironically.
He also does not rule out the possibility of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s ‘Batkivshchyna’ party being drawn into the vote on amendments to the Ukrainian Constitution; for her, given current approval ratings, this parliament could well be her last.
The third lever in forming a potential constitutional majority is Zaluzhny’s own authority amongst a number of MPs who tacitly ‘look to’ the former commander-in-chief, hoping to achieve their own political rebirth alongside him in the next parliamentary term.
Historical parallels: The curse of Ukrainian duumvirates
Attempts to unite leaders with high political standing are nothing new in Ukrainian history. They have almost always looked attractive on paper, but have had rather dubious results in practice.
Let us recall Ukraine’s second president, Leonid Kuchma, and Marchuk in 1995. Kuchma appointed the influential former head of the SBU, Yevhen Marchuk, as prime minister, hoping to consolidate the security bloc and push through reforms. However, the result was a covert war of ambitions, mutual distrust and Marchuk’s resignation in less than a year due to his ‘attempts to build his own political image’.
Another example is the duumvirate of the Orange Revolution, represented by Ukraine’s third president, Viktor Yushchenko, and Tymoshenko. The tandem of the ‘messiah’ and the ‘icon of protest’ was supposed to cement a pro-Western course. However, instead, the country was left with a paralysed executive branch, public allegations of corruption and, ultimately, Viktor Yanukovych’s comeback.
The pros and cons of the ‘Zelenskyy–Zaluzhny’ scenario
There are, of course, obvious advantages to a potential alliance between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyy. First and foremost is the long-awaited consolidation. After all, public friction and hidden behind-the-scenes rivalry between the incumbent president and the former commander-in-chief have been undermining the stability of a nation at war for far too long. The formal establishment of a united leadership duo would automatically eliminate the risk of internal division, which the Kremlin has systematically sought to exploit to destabilise both the Ukrainian home front and the front line.
Equally important is the so-called ‘Western blessing’ and the need to renew the legitimacy of the government. Certain think tanks in the US and the EU explicitly state that further financial and defence support for Ukraine is increasingly linked to the issue of a political reset and the reaffirmation of the democratic mandate. European approaches to post-war reconstruction also emphasise the need for maximum transparency and institutional stability.
In contrast, the example of the electoral alliance between Zaluzhny and Zelenskyy minimises these political risks, paving the way for attracting billions in foreign investment into the country’s reconstruction. Ultimately, this could significantly strengthen Ukraine’s position in future negotiations on the security architecture and a peaceful settlement.
However, the flip side of the coin looks no less worrying. The first and most obvious threat is the de facto preservation of the old system under a new, flashy patriotic guise. This is because, in order to pass electoral legislation, ‘Servants of the People’ will have to rely on the votes of toxic remnants of the Opposition Platform – For Life party and buy the loyalty of oligarchic groups. And this will inevitably drag the country back into the worst practices of self-serving ‘backroom deals’.
The second time bomb lies in the risk of institutional paralysis. After all, if General Zaluzhnyy decides to join the government, a fierce conflict over real powers between the president and the Cabinet of Ministers is almost inevitable due to the specific nature of the Ukrainian Constitution.
For the country, this could result in widespread electoral disillusionment, creating the perfect breeding ground for the resurgence of votes for former Party of Regions supporters and ‘Moscow’s mouthpieces’.
Therefore, the key question at present is not whether Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyy will be able to reach a final agreement. What is far more important is the price of this agreement: will it serve as a mechanism for institutional reform, or merely as a new form of dividing spheres of influence?
After all, as soon as a struggle for resources, appointments and control over decision-making begins behind the façade of ‘unity’, any alliance turns into a source of a new crisis. It is precisely for this reason that such a significant convergence between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyy could become either a point of stabilisation for the country in wartime, or the most ambitious political experiment with unpredictable consequences.